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Climate change projections indicate a steady increase in temperature progressing through the 21st century, generally resulting in snowpack reductions, changes to the timing of snowmelt, altered streamflows, and reductions in soil moisture, all of which could affect water management, agriculture, recreation, hazard mitigation, and ecosystems across the nation. Despite some widespread similarities in climate change trends, climate change will affect specific water basins in the U.S. differently, based on the particular hydrologic and geologic conditions in that area. New USGS modeling studies project changes in water availability due to climate change at the local level. So far, the USGS has applied these models to fourteen basins, including:
"The advantage of these studies is that they demonstrate that there is not just one hydrological response to climate change: the predictions account for essential local factors that will govern the timing, severity, and type of impact, whether it be water shortage, drought, or flood," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "This is exactly the sort of information communities need to know now, because we are unlikely to see a 'water-as-usual' future." These local projections are based on General Circulation Models (GCM) that predict how climate change will affect temperature, precipitation, and emissions for large regional areas. The USGS’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) applies information from the downscaled GCM projections to local watersheds, where impacts of climate change on water availability will depend on local conditions. These local-scale hydrologic projections will allow managers to plan for changes in water resources that are specific to their area. For example, the USGS models project that changes to snow pack in the Sprague River Basin in Oregon could cause annual peak streamflows to occur earlier in the spring as overall basin storage decreases, which may force managers to modify storage operation and reprioritize water deliveries for environmental and human needs. Reduced snowpack in headwaters of the Colorado River could affect the amount and timing of streamflow to the Colorado River and also impact important recreation areas. Portions of Maine may see higher streamflows which could affect populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. Areas of the already drought-stressed Flint River Basin, one of Atlanta’s primary drinking water supplies, are projected to become even drier. The results for each basin present a complex story due to uncertainty associated with the future climate projections and their effect on the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the nation. Detailed information about watershed responses to climate change can be found online. Additionally, a collection of USGS studies that contributed to these basin-wide analyses was published in the journal Earth Interactions. The downscaled GCM models are obtained from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset archive. The USGS PRMS models were developed as part of the USGS National Research Program (NRP) in cooperation with USGS Water Science Centers. The NRP develops new information, theories, and techniques to anticipate, understand, and solve problems facing resources managers and is a national leader in understanding the effects of climate change on water resources. These USGS models are just one of several tools developed and used by agencies within the Department of the Interior to study potential impacts from climate change and to provide tools to resource managers to adapt to those changes. For example, the Bureau of Reclamation recently unveiled a user-friendly tool for calculating future streamflow and water supplies at 195 sites in the western United States to help increase accessibility of science-based information and ease understanding of how climate variations will impact water availability for local communities.
Being in a hospital is tough enough without having to worry about how the building will hold up during an earthquake. Now veterans in Memphis, Tenn. can rest assured knowing that their medical center, even though it is located in the most active earthquake zone in the Eastern United States, has the most sophisticated seismic structural monitoring system in the country. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Veterans Affairs have equipped over 70 VA medical centers across the country with seismic monitoring systems that monitor in real time what happens to buildings during and after earthquakes._Most recently, the agencies installed 36 sensors in two buildings at the Memphis VA Medical Center. These sensors provide information that can be used to see what happens to the buildings during an event, to judge the safety of the buildings afterwards, and to design safer hospitals in the future. "Modern hospitals are immense investments in state-of-the-art facilities, high-tech equipment, highly-educated medical professionals, as well as recovering patients, all of which need the very best protection in the event of an earthquake," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "We are grateful for the partnership of the Department of Veterans Affairs in helping the USGS to record very detailed building performance data that will ultimately reduce risk to life and property from natural hazards." Hospitals are just one piece of the Nation’s critical infrastructure threatened by the shaking that comes with earthquakes. The USGS monitors more than 250 structures nationwide including fire stations, emergency operation centers, major bridges, nuclear power plants, offshore drilling platforms and airports. These monitoring stations are part of the implementation of the USGS Advanced National Seismic System, which is modernizing and expanding earthquake monitoring around the Nation to improve the overall understanding of earthquakes and their behavior. This allows for better preparation for earthquakes and can minimize damage by designing safer structures that protect vulnerable citizens and resources. USGS structural monitoring provides information about how buildings act during shaking, and how damage occurs. This can lead to improved earthquake-resistant design techniques, as well as predict how buildings will withstand different levels of shaking. Data from the sensors demonstrate whether the buildings behaved as designed by recording:
Other sensors located away from the building record overall ground shaking to feed USGS Shakemaps. These graphics show ground motion and shaking intensity after significant earthquakes, giving a visual representation of a quake’s behavior and impact for rapid situational awareness. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is part of the four-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Earthquakes pose significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The EHP provides information and products for earthquake loss reduction, including hazard and risk assessment, and comprehensive real-time earthquake monitoring. Learn more about the Memphis VA Hospital Center’s real-time seismic monitoring system in this USGS Factsheet.
RESTON, Va. — Thanks to citizen-scientists around the country, the USA National Phenology Network hit a major milestone this week by reaching its one millionth nature observation. The millionth observation was done by Lucille Tower, a citizen-scientist in Portland, Ore., who entered a record about seeing maple vines flowering. Her data, like all of the entries, came in through USA-NPN’s online observation program, Nature's Notebook, which engages more than 4,000 volunteers across the country to observe and record phenology – the timing of the recurring life events of plants and animals such as when cherry trees or lilacs blossom, when robins build their nests, when salmon swim upstream to spawn or when leaves turn colors in the fall. Each record not only represents a single data point — the status of a specific life stage of an individual plant or animal on one day – but also benefits both science and society by helping researchers understand how plants and animals are responding to climate change and, in turn, how those responses are affecting people and ecological systems. "My dream is that through the wonders of modern technology and the National Phenology Network we could turn the more than six billion people on the planet into components of our scientific observing system," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "We could make giant leaps in science education, improve the spatial and temporal coverage of the planet, lower the cost of scientific data collection, and all while making ordinary citizens feel a part of the scientific process." Jake Weltzin, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist and the executive director of USA-NPN, concurs. "Hitting the one millionth observation is exciting because researchers and decision-makers need more information to understand and respond to our rapidly changing planet. More information means better-informed decisions that ensure the continued vitality of our natural areas that we all depend on and enjoy." For example, said Weltzin, the data in Nature's Notebook are already being used to benefit society, including the development of more accurate indicators of spring, forecasting the onset of allergy seasons or the chances of western wildfires, managing wildlife and invasive plants, and setting goals for habitat restoration. Ultimately, such information can be used for better managing water resources, wildlife and ecosystem management, and even help farmers and ranchers across the nation. Changes in phenology are among the most sensitive biological indicators of global change. Across the world, many springtime events are occurring earlier — and fall events happening later — than in the past. These changes are happening quickly for some species and more slowly, or not at all, for others, altering relationships and processes that have been dynamically stable for thousands of years. Some wildlife —like caribou and butterflies — are becoming mismatched from their plant food resources, which are responding differently. Migrations for some birds are changing too, as they can now overwinter instead of moving south for the winter, or as they fly north more quickly to keep pace with an advancing front of spring flowering. Because of this, said Weltzin, scientists need more and better information about the pace and pattern of nature — locally to nationally — to answer important scientific and societal questions, and to build the tools and models needed to help people understand and adapt to the changes. "So much of our improved understanding about global environmental changes is driven by varied and valuable sources of information that include networks of citizen-scientists," said John Wingfield, National Science Foundation’s assistant director for biological sciences. "The public at large has played an important role collecting observations and data for a hundred years and more. Knowledge and data gained from their work will continue to have a lasting effect on how we understand regularly recurring biological phenomena for hundreds of plant and animal species and contribute to the policy arena." Gwen Lundburg in Seattle is one citizen-scientist who has contributed hundreds of entries into Nature’s Notebook. "Just noticing small changes like tiny purple lilac buds suddenly turning green has taught me to look more closely at my plants," Lundburg said. "I see things in my garden I never saw before." With the help of citizen-scientist volunteers, working in concert with professionals, the USA-NPN, which was established in 2007, collects, stores and freely shares phenological data on more than 800 species of plants and animals. The Nature’s Notebook observing program has been in operation since 2009. The coordinating office of the organization is located at 1955 E. 6th St., Tucson, Ariz., 85721. For more information, visit the USA National Phenology Network, or contact Jake Weltzin at 520-626-3821 or jweltzin@usgs.gov.
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U.S. Department of the Interior |U.S. Geological Survey
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Page Last Modified: Friday, 21-Mar-2008 13:15:08
